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Regional pools · banner pity · ten-pulls

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Select the banner containing your target, enter its current consecutive misses below five-star, and compare single pulls with complete ten-pull actions. Your forecast includes early five-star pity resets and the conditional final roll of each ten-pull. Compare the chance of selecting your target at least once with the chances of any four-star-or-higher result and any five-star. Target odds refer to species selection before shiny duplicate rerouting, so they answer which partner the banner initially selects rather than which new collection entry you will finish with.

Plan a regional pull budget

Regional banner
Target partner
Pull action
Number of actions

Enter 0–100 complete actions. One ten-pull action produces ten results; single-pull actions do not receive the ten-pull floor.

Consecutive non-five-star results

Enter the selected banner's counter, from 0 to 69. A five-star result resets it, even if you already own that species.

Target selected at least once

3.8295%

Target partner: Dragonite · 5 stars · Kanto

Species in the target regional rarity pool
6
Results requested from the regional banner
10
Normal tickets needed for the requested results
10
Alternative ten-pull tickets for this budget
1
Results until the regional five-star hard pity
70
At least one 4★ or 5★
100%
At least one 5★
22.1717%
Expected target selections
0.0386
Average ending pity counter
8.3966
Ordinary target chance
0.25%
Target share of matching rarity pool
16.6667%

Expected counts include repeated species. The average ending counter is a probability-weighted forecast, not an exact counter to enter for your next session.

Species are selected uniformly within their regional rarity pool. Owned-shiny rerouting is outside this calculation, so a target selection does not always describe the final awarded species.

Expected results by rarity

Average rarity counts across the selected budget
RaritySpecies in this poolExpected results
1★354.2875
2★412.8584
3★381.6197
4★311.0029
5★60.2314

Set up the same budget you will spend

  1. Choose the target's region first: Changing the banner replaces the target choices with its actual partners. A Kanto target cannot be selected from Alola. The target's rarity pool, rather than the whole banner's species count, is the denominator for its selection chance.

  2. Enter that banner's pity counter: Use consecutive results below five-star on the selected region since its last five-star. Start at zero for a fresh banner, or enter 69 if the very next result must be five-star. Switching regions does not transfer progress.

  3. Count actions rather than vouchers' faces: For 30 single results, choose Single pull and enter 30. For three complete ten-pulls, choose Ten-pull and enter 3. The second budget can use 30 normal tickets or three ten-pull tickets, with the same probability rules.

  4. Compare selection and rarity outcomes: A 100% five-star chance can coexist with a much lower target chance. Read the matching pool size and expected target selections beside the rarity results. More than one expected selection does not prevent a session from selecting that target zero times.

Ten singles versus one ten-pull

These examples start with Kanto's six-member five-star pool and target Dragonite. The budget is ten results in every row. In a ten-pull, the tenth result depends on the preceding nine; the four-star floor does not apply independently to all ten results.

Kanto Dragonite · ten results per comparison
Action planStarting pityAt least one targetAt least one 4★+At least one 5★Expected 5★ results
10 single pulls02.4721%56.5612%14.027%0.15
1 ten-pull03.8295%100%22.1717%0.2314
10 single pulls6517.7335%100%100%1.0772
1 ten-pull6517.7335%100%100%1.0772
10 single pulls6918.523%100%100%1.135
1 ten-pull6918.523%100%100%1.135

Regional pool sizes change species odds

All nine banners have entries at every rarity. The ordinary rarity weights are therefore the same across regions, but a named target's conditional chance depends on its pool size. Kanto's six five-stars give a one-in-six target chance on a forced five-star; Alola's seventeen give one in seventeen.

Actual regional species counts by rarity
Banner1★2★3★4★5★
Kanto354138316
Johto252129187
Hoenn4125441213
Sinnoh2020203215
Unova3627382614
Kalos151714177
Alola149232017
Galar234232512
Paldea247193012
Regional banner pool sizes broken down by the five rarity tiers
Use the target's rarity column when comparing species selection. A smaller regional roster does not by itself make every target easier to select.

Why the model follows every pity reset

An ordinary result uses rarity weights 45, 30, 17, 6.5 and 1.5 for one through five stars. Before each result, the banner counter increases by one. Reaching 70 forces five-star, and any five-star resets the counter to zero. Starting with 65 misses therefore guarantees at least one five-star within the next five results; a lucky result earlier in that interval immediately changes the remaining sequence.

A target from the forced rarity is still chosen uniformly among that rarity's species. In Kanto, Dragonite's ordinary-pull selection chance is 1.5% divided by six, or 0.25%. On a forced five-star it is one in six, approximately 16.67%. Neither repeated guarantees nor a five-star duplicate singles out Dragonite. Every five-star resets pity, including a species other than your target.

The final ten-pull result has a conditional rule

If the first nine results contain no four-star or five-star, result ten rolls only from weights 6.5 and 1.5. After renormalizing, that restricted roll is 81.25% four-star and 18.75% five-star. If an earlier result already met the four-star floor, the final result uses the ordinary rarity roll unless hard pity forces five-star. Hard pity takes priority when both rules could apply.

The floor starts afresh for each complete ten-pull action. Four-star results do not reset five-star pity, but they satisfy the current batch's floor. A ten-pull's odds therefore depend on both the banner's pity counter and whether an earlier result satisfied that batch's floor. Pressing single pull ten times advances the same banner counter, yet those separate actions do not receive the extra final-roll rule.

Selection odds and collection progress

The selected species gets a 1% shiny check if its form is supported. A shiny you already own can then move the final result to another missing shiny in the same rarity pool. When no missing shiny remains there, the result becomes normal. If you already own shinies, a target's initial selection can differ from the final award; read these target odds as initial species selections.

Normal duplicates refund 15, 30, 60, 120 or 300 PokéCoins by rarity. They still consume the ticket budget, and a five-star duplicate still resets pity. Expected rarity counts include repeated species, so they do not measure how many new partners you will collect. Use the shiny calculator when comparing eligible shiny-check counts, and the achievements guide when looking for ticket rewards to fund another budget.

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