Eligible encounters · independent rolls
PokéSurvivor Shiny Calculator
Choose wild encounters, rift targets or gacha results, then enter how many eligible shiny rolls you want to compare. Wild enemies use 1/4096, shiny-capable rift targets use 1/512, and eligible gacha selections use 1/100. The result measures the chance of at least one successful roll across that many trials. It does not turn a run's total enemy count into encounters with one chosen species. Use the availability table below to exclude partners without a shiny form, and count only trials belonging to the context you selected.
Estimate at least one shiny roll
Chance of at least one successful roll
4096 eligible trials · Wild enemy · 0.0244% per trial
- Chance per eligible trial
- 0.0244%
- Chance of no successful rolls
- 36.7835%
- Expected successful rolls
- 1
1 − (1 − 0.000244140625)^4096 = 63.2165%
This is the shiny roll after an eligible encounter has been selected. Defeating a shiny enemy is the separate step that unlocks its playable form.
A rounded near-certainty is shown with >, not as a guarantee. Expected rolls are an average across repeated sets of trials.
Choose the trials that answer your question
Match the context to your route: Use Wild enemy for the ordinary spawn roll, Rift target for a selected shiny-capable rift legendary, or Eligible gacha selection for the shiny check after a regional pull has selected a supported species. The rift rate does not apply to every enemy in an arena.
Count eligible selections: For any wild shiny, count all encountered enemies with supported shiny forms. For one wild species, count only its eligible appearances. A total of 4096 enemies containing several species is not 4096 chances for a particular partner.
Read success, misses and the average together: The main result answers whether at least one shiny roll succeeds. The no-success value is its complement. The expected count is n × p, which can equal one even when the chance of getting none is still about 37%.
Plan the next independent set: After a run with no shiny, enter the encounters you plan to make next. Previous wild or rift misses do not raise the next roll's probability. For gacha rarity and banner pity, use the separate gacha calculator; its state changes after five-star results.
How many eligible trials reach a chosen chance?
These thresholds solve n = ceiling(log(1 − chance) / log(1 − p)). They are the smallest whole trial counts reaching the listed probability, rather than deadlines for obtaining a shiny. The gacha column assumes every counted selection receives the 1% check.
| Chance of at least one | Wild · 1/4096 | Rift · 1/512 | Gacha · 1/100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2,839 | 355 | 69 |
| 90% | 9,431 | 1,178 | 230 |
| 95% | 12,270 | 1,533 | 299 |
| 99% | 18,861 | 2,356 | 459 |
One expected success still leaves room for zero
Compare 100, 512 and 4096 eligible trials across the three contexts. At n = 1/p, the average success count is exactly one, but the at-least-one probability is only about 63%. Wild appearances, selected rift targets and gacha results take different amounts of time, so equal trial counts do not mean equal play time.
| Eligible trials | Wild | Rift | Gacha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 2.4121% | 17.758% | 63.3968% |
| 512 | 11.7517% | 63.248% | 99.4176% |
| 4,096 | 63.2165% | 99.9667% | >99.9999% |
Exclude these unsupported shiny forms
958 of the 966 playable partners support a shiny form. The eight entries below cannot contribute an eligible shiny trial for their own form. Open a partner record to check its region and normal collection route; its presence in a regional banner does not create a shiny form.
| Partner | Region | Rarity |
|---|---|---|
| Karrablast | Unova | 1★ |
| Greedent | Galar | 3★ |
| Barraskewda | Galar | 3★ |
| Milcery | Galar | 1★ |
| Glastrier | Galar | 5★ |
| Oinkologne | Paldea | 3★ |
| Naclstack | Paldea | 2★ |
| Koraidon | Paldea | 5★ |
Any shiny and your target shiny are different events
The wild model conditions on an enemy already being selected. A species that appears only in certain spawn tiers has fewer eligible appearances than the total enemies you meet. Check the partner's encounter fields in the Pokédex, then use its own appearance count if your goal is that species. Count your target's eligible appearances rather than estimating them from minutes played.
Rift mode likewise starts after the legendary has been selected. The 1/512 check does not describe the chance of a particular rift appearing, and it does not include your chance of winning the fight. Defeating a shiny enemy unlocks the shiny playable partner. Encounter selection, shiny roll and victory are separate steps when planning a named legendary hunt.
What a 1% gacha calculation includes
A regional pull first chooses rarity and species. Only a species with a supported shiny form receives the 1% check. If you enter 100 eligible selections here, you are estimating successful checks across those selections, not necessarily across 100 unfiltered tickets. A banner containing unsupported forms can produce pulls that do not belong in that count.
An already-owned shiny is rerouted to a missing shiny in the same regional rarity pool. If that pool has no missing shiny, the result becomes normal. Your collection therefore changes the relationship between a successful check and the final species you receive. Use the gacha calculator to compare species odds with rarity pools, pity and ten-pull rules; account for your owned shinies separately.